Prediction markets are a legally distinct category under Gibraltar law neither betting, gaming nor a lottery, but a regulated activity in its own right.
The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 (the “Prediction Market Regulations“) create a distinct activity for the purposes of the Gambling Act 2025.
Prediction markets are not treated as betting, gaming or a lottery. This is a deliberate and significant step. Prediction markets differ from traditional gambling products and are regulated accordingly.
Triay Lawyers has been at the forefront of Gibraltar’s emergence as a premier financial services, fintech and DLT & digital asset jurisdiction. We are well placed to advise operators, service providers, investors and participants on what the new Prediction Market Regulations mean for their businesses.
The Regulations delineate prediction markets from gambling
The Prediction Market Regulations deliberately carve out prediction market activity as a separate and self-contained regulatory category.
Application and status of prediction market activity
The Prediction Market Regulations make clear that prediction market activity is a distinct activity providing legal certainty that was previously absent and allows businesses to build out prediction markets with confidence.
Prediction Market Contracts
The Prediction Market Regulations govern the authorisation of prediction market contracts i.e. the agreements whose value depends on the outcome of an event or related measure. Such contracts cover political, financial, sporting, and other event-based markets.
One authorisation & increased flexibility.
The Prediction Market Regulations provide a clean delineation from other regulatory regimes. An authorised prediction market operator is not required to obtain a separate licence or authorisation under any other Gibraltar enactment in respect of prediction market activity.
How Triay can assist you
Whether you are seeking authorisation under the Prediction Market Regulations, reviewing your existing position, or considering Gibraltar as the home for your prediction market platform, our team provides expert, end-to-end legal support.
Authorisation Applications
Advising on and preparing prediction market authorisation applications under the Prediction Market Regulations, including engagement strategy with the local regulatory stakeholders, policy and procedure assistance, and condition management post-grant.
Regulatory Classification
Analysis of whether your product is best suited to authorisation under the Prediction Market Regulations, a gambling licence, or another permission entirely — and the strategic implications of each pathway.
Contract Rules & Settlement
Assistance with the drafting and reviewing contract rules and settlement arrangements, including resolution clauses, oracle dispute mechanisms, and suspension and delisting procedures.
Compliance Frameworks
Building AML/CFT/CPF, CDD/KYC, market integrity, conflict of interest and participant protection compliance programmes aligned to the Prediction Market Regulations, including policies, procedures and governance structures for senior management accountability.
Digital Asset & DLT Structuring
Advising on the use of digital asset payments, DLT-based settlement, smart contract enforceability, and the interaction between prediction market authorisation and Gibraltar’s DLT regulations.
Disputes & Enforcement
Representing and advising operators and participants in respect of disputes, advising on the notice and appeal processes, and regulatory investigations.
WHY GIBRALTAR?
A first-mover jurisdiction
Gibraltar has a record of creating regulatory space ahead of the rest of the world. Gibraltar was among the first jurisdictions to regulate online gaming in the 1990s, the first to create a bespoke DLT regulatory framework in 2018, and has now enacted dedicated prediction market legislation. For prediction market operators, this means legal certainty, a cooperative supervisory authority, and access to a proven track record of proportionate, commercially intelligent regulation.
Bespoke Regime
- The only dedicated prediction market regulations in force globally as of July 2026
Favourable Tax
- 15% corporate tax · No CGT, VAT, inheritance or withholding tax
Crypto-Ready
- Digital asset payments expressly permitted — including stablecoins
UK Market Access
- Unique ability to passport certain financial services into the United Kingdom
The DLT connection
Triay has advised on DLT licensing since the DLT framework’s inception and brings that expertise directly to bear on the prediction markets space.
Many prediction market platforms operate using distributed ledger technology. Such operators use smart contracts for settlement, blockchain-based payment rails, and decentralised governance structures.
Gibraltar’s DLT regulatory framework, in force since 2018, provides highly developed legal infrastructure for these operations. Combined with the express rules within the Prediction Market Regulations, Gibraltar offers a uniquely coherent regulatory environment for technology-forward operators.
Insight from the team
June 2026 · News & Analysis
Prediction Markets — how can Gibraltar leverage its position at the forefront of developing technologies?
Written ahead of the commencement of the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, Rupert Moffatt examines what makes prediction markets structurally different from traditional gaming products, the key areas of regulatory uncertainty that a bespoke framework should address, and why Gibraltar’s existing regulatory infrastructure makes it uniquely well suited to lead in this space. Required reading for anyone considering an application under the new regime.
Common Questions
What clients ask us about the new Regulations
HOW DO I GET A PREDICTION MARKET LICENCE?
An application must be made to the relevant authority in the form and manner it determines, accompanied by the information specified in Prediction Market Regulations which includes, among other things, a business plan, ownership and governance details, contract rules, AML/CFT/CPF and sanctions controls, safeguarding arrangements, and a recovery and wind-down plan. We can advise on the full application process, from pre-application engagement with the relevant authority through to post-grant condition management.
DOES MY PLATFORM NEED A PREDICTION MARKET AUTHORISATION?
The Prediction Market Regulations resolve this question explicitly for Gibraltar. Prediction market activity carried out in Gibraltar is a distinct activity and is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery.
The right regulatory pathway depends on how your contracts are structured. For instance, if your prediction market contracts constitute financial instruments under the Financial Services Act 2019, a different pathway may be available.
We carry out a product and regulatory classification analysis as the starting point for all new client mandates.
CAN WE USE CRYPTOCURRENCY OR STABLECOINS FOR SETTLEMENT?
Yes, authorised prediction market operators are permitted to use digital asset payments (including stablecoins) for account funding, collateral provision, transaction settlement, and participant withdrawals.
The use of digital assets does not alter the legal character of a prediction market contract or cause the operator or any participant to be treated as carrying on any additional regulated activity.
WHAT ARE THE ONGOING OBLIGATIONS ONCE WE ARE AUTHORISED?
The Prediction Market Regulations contain comprehensive ongoing requirements for prediction market operators.
These are designed to ensure market integrity and participant protection, and allow for the relevant authority to maintain oversight over authorised prediction market operators.
DO WE NEED A GIBRALTAR PHYSICAL PRESENCE ?
Yes, substance is important. Authorised prediction market operators are required to maintain such substantive presence in Gibraltar as the relevant authority considers necessary for effective supervision.
The precise nature of the requirements will depend on the nature, scale and complexity of the business. We advise on structuring substantive presence in Gibraltar in a way that satisfies regulatory requirements whilst remaining commercially pragmatic.
Additionally, using our network of service providers we can help you make the required connections to establish your business in Gibraltar quickly and effectively.
